Intercambio

Presentación

Revista Intercambio — 2025-07-07

La Revista Intercambio nace como un proyecto que ha buscado visibilizar el trabajo y el esfuerzo que conlleva la construcción y materialización de ideas relacionadas con la economía. Concebido y gestionado por estudiantes, es un espacio valioso para la socialización rigurosa de las inquietudes académicas dentro un contexto que se destaca por sus dinámicas cada vez más mercantiles donde el saber tiende a medirse en función de su rentabilidad inmediata e incluso, su validez es una discusión encaminada a través de sesgos.

De este modo, el año 2024 estuvo lleno de particularidades dentro de los procesos ordinarios de la Revista, sin embargo, las dinámicas que poco a poco se fueron construyendo a través de una llamativa comunicación entre miembros antiguos y nuevos, dejan entrever sus frutos en esta edición. El cambio generacional fue uno de los aspectos que como proyecto estudiantil tuvo gran relevancia a la hora de formular las estrategias para la presente edición, lo que constituyó uno de los motivos por los cuales las ideas relacionadas con la difusión académica y la expansión del proyecto se están llevando a cabo hasta la actualidad.

De este modo y con genuino entusiasmo, presentamos la edición 8 de la Revista Intercambio, Revista de Estudiantes de Economía de la Universidad Nacional de Colombia. Esta edición representa el resultado de un esfuerzo colectivo que reunió a autoras y autores comprometidos, a una comunidad académica activa y crítica, y a un comité editorial que acompañó con dedicación cada etapa del proceso. Nos enorgullece profundamente la calidad y diversidad de las propuestas recibidas, así como el rigor y el compromiso que implicó convertirlas en las publicaciones aquí mostradas.

Determinants of gross fixed capital formation in Colombia: the role of uncertainty

Esteban Álvarez Granda — 2025-07-07

The main objective of this article is to determine if uncertainty influences investment in gross fixed capital formation in Colombia, since there was a sharp investment contraction and a significant uncertainty environment in 2023. Therefore, this article develops a literature review from different perspectives, besides a model by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and a descriptive analysis of the variables from 2006-2023. It found a negative relationship between uncertainty and investment in Colombia, the equal relationship suggested by most theoretical and empirical literature.

El The volume and growth of foreign debt: a constraint to the development of economies such as Colombia’s today?

Cristina de los Angeles Moscoso Alvarez — 2025-07-07

Sometimes, a nation’s revenues are insufficient to cover its expenses. This disparity has driven domestic and foreign debt as a solution to fiscal and budget deficits. As a developing nation, Colombia follows this trend by obtaining loans from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund and issuing securities. In addition, the lack of adequate fiscal revenues forces the country to request foreign monetary support, arguing that credit encourages investment and economic development. However, it is jarring how Colombia’s growing external debt has hindered its long-term economic transformation, leading its economy into a vicious cycle of indebtedness. To delve deeper into this, this paper analyzes how external debt limits the Colombian economy, impacting investment, the current account, and the national budget.

The conditions for the implementation of a CBDC in Colombia and it’s positive impact within the International Monetary System

Samuel Gómez Gil — 2025-07-07

In this document are studied the necessary aspects that must be considered in the implementation of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) for Colombia, and the effect it would have on the country within the framework of the International Monetary System. It is made a general review of the financial system environment in terms of stability and credibility; and also a general review about the Colombian retail payment system. In this context, the elements that must be considered in the design of the CBDC are proposed: its architecture, interest rate, level of privacy and holding limit. Finally, there are exposed the benefits that a CBDC could bring from the improvement in cross-border payments, and the position it would give to the country at an international level.

Predicción de acciones mediante técnicas de modelado de temas y análisis de sentimiento: un estudio de caso de aprendizaje automático sobre Ecopetrol

Edwar David Valenzuela Cortés — 2025-07-07

This study introduces a novel technique for predicting market movements using topic and sentiment analysis of financial news about Ecopetrol. News headlines from Hydrocarbons and La República (July 2012 to December 2023) were analyzed using BER Topic, FinBERT, and Vader. The findings show that predictive models based on news headlines are more effective over 3 and 4-week periods compared to shorter periods. The Gradient Boosting model for week 3 achieved a profitability of 49.4% and accuracy of 57%, while a Random Forest model for week 4 yielded a profitability of 33.11% with a 9.71% error, outperforming the buy and hold strategy. These results highlight the advantage of short-term trend predictions in financial decision-making.

New supply shocks, same monetary policy: The need for microeconomic indicators of inflation in Latin America

Camilo Esteban Miranda Robayo — 2025-07-07

Since 2021, Latin America has experienced inflationary phenomena to which Central Banks have responded using their inflation targeting frameworks. However, the fact that the main drivers of these price increases may have been supply shocks not only calls into question the effectiveness of measures such as interest rate hikes but also revives the debate on their negative impacts on the productive fabric and the functional distribution of income. In this context, this paper argues for the need for macroeconomic indicators to measure and decompose inflationary impulses in the region, which would enable monetary authorities to differentiate their policy strategies in response to price level changes originating from asymmetric sources. Data from Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Peru are analyzed, concluding that there do not appear to be nuances in the interest rate reactions of the region’s central banks regarding the origin of inflation.